YOUTH OF AMERICA: Don't Become Another Great Pumpkin! GET OUT AND VOTE FOR OBAMA

An Obama Youthquake: Great Pumpkin or Great Bet?
By Andrea Tantaros
Republican Political Commentator/Foxnews.com Contributor

Each year Democrats anticipate the youth vote as eagerly as Linus Van Pelt prepares for the Great Pumpkin. On Halloween night, Linus waits for the Great Pumpkin to appear. On Election Night the left waits for the young to appear. Invariably, the Great Pumpkin fails to show up and a humiliated but undefeated Linus vows to wait for him again the following Halloween. Similarly, the left predicts every presidential election cycle that the demographic will storm the polls in massive numbers resulting in a tidal wave of support, but like Linus their existence exists only in their imaginations. Will this year be any different?

Rewind to 2004: turnout among young people was, as a proportion of the whole electorate, almost identical to 2000’s weak showing. My generation was supposed to win it for John Kerry, so when George W. Bush defeated him in 2004 many Democrats blamed us for failing to show up in greater numbers.

Fast forward to 2008: in state after state, Obama has drawn more young voters than any of his competitors. According to the Associated Press an estimated nine million new voters of all ages have registered to vote this year, with a majority registering as Democrats. However, registration doesn’t always translate into votes.

According to The Wall Street Journal, voters under 30 have not widely participated in early voting this year. “In Florida, they account for 8 percent of cast ballots, though they make up 17 percent of voters. In North Carolina, voters under 30 make up 11 percent of cast ballots, but make up 19 percent of voters.” In addition, a poll conducted by The Journal showed that “only 54 percent of new voters said they would definitely vote on Nov. 4.”

So is Obama is simply a trend? And like most trends (parachute pants, barbed wire tattoos, and poufy bangs) will the Obamamania fizzle as quickly as it fired up?

Young people haven’t been screwed by government. Until they have, their level of intensity can’t be on par with those who are paying out the whazoo in taxes, healthcare and energy costs.

Worse yet, if the mainstream media continues to predict a landslide for Senator Obama on Election Day many youth, who for years have shown that interest doesn’t exactly equal action, could stay home. “Why bother when adults can do it for you?” is already a slogan of the millennial generation. College campuses are reported to be so saturated with Obama propaganda that fatigue has crept in. Without students on the other side to inspire competition, the extent of tween Obama support could end up resulting in the slapping of a bumper sticker on a dorm window.

“In many ways, our fate is in their hands,” Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said on a recent conference call with reporters, a risky bet for such an unreliable ballot box bunch and perhaps the reason for McCain’s continued optimism and perseverance.

Next Tuesday my eyes will be glued to the election results to see if for the first time in memory this voting block proves fruitful, or if Democrats are left disappointed, once again, by their Great Pumpkin.

Endorsement Update #3: Conservative Edition

One of Sarah Palin's "favorite magazines," the center-right leaning Economist, has endorsed Barack Obama for President. In its editorial, they write,

For all the shortcomings of the campaign, both John McCain and Barack Obama offer hope of national redemption. Now America has to choose between them. The Economist does not have a vote, but if it did, it would cast it for Mr Obama. We do so wholeheartedly: the Democratic candidate has clearly shown that he offers the better chance of restoring America’s self-confidence.

Wikipedia also has a running tally of both Newspaper and Magazine endorsements, for both candidates. Obama is whipping McCain in sheer numbers, 268 to 91; an almost 3 to 1 advantage. Even more telling, 48 traditionally conservative publications have given their endorsements to Senator Obama. And it isn't only conservative papers that are coming out for Barack Obama. Higher ups in the Bush Administration, like former Press Secretary Scott McClellan and of course former Sec. of State Colin Powell will be voting for Obama. In New Hampshire, Fred Bramante, a member of McCain's New Hampshire Leadership Committee and a 2008 Alternate Delegate to the Republican National Convention today announced his support for Senator Obama's Campaign for Change. Mr. Bramante's endorsement marks the first time nationally that a delegate or alternate delegate to the 2008 Republican National Convention has publicly announced their decision to support Sen. Obama. And of course, Republicans For Obama has a detailed list of the many conservatives crossing over to support Senator Obama in this election.

But hey, McCain's still got Lieberman!

The entire Obama Infomercial (sans the live cut to Florida)

Ladies and Gentlemen, the Next President of the United States.

Convicted! Republican Senator Ted Stevens Going to Jail.

Alaska Senator Ted Stevens was just found guilty of lying about gifts he received totaling over a quarter million dollars.

Senator Stevens, a man whom Sarah Palin helped get re-elected by directing his 527 fund, is a living embodiment of the sleazy, special interest driven, corrupt heart of the GOP soul. His conviction is the real October surprise in this campaign. His case is a metaphor for a Washington culture that is out of control, that represents the old, pre-Obama way of doing business. Thankfully, in 8 days, Americans will be able to elect a President who respects the rule of law, who has not taken a single cent from lobbyists or special interest groups.

Let's hear it for the rule of law!!!

La, La La La La O-BA-MA

Apparently, there is a city in Japan called Obama. A band from Obama has just put out this very funny video. Check it out!

George W Bush on SNL for a surprise endorsement!

The History Argument

I just love this story. Had to pass it on...

Upon arriving at the Hamilton County Board of Elections in Cincinnati to vote early today I happened upon some friends of my mother's — three small, elderly Jewish women. They were quite upset as they were being refused admitance to the polling location due to their Obama T-Shirts, hats and buttons. Apparently you cannot wear Obama/McCain gear into polling locations here in Ohio.... They were practically on the verge of tears.

After a minute or two of this a huge man (6'5", 300 lbs easy) wearing a Dale Earnhardt jacket and Bengal's baseball cap left the voting line, came up to us and introduced himself as Mike. He told us he had overheard our conversation and asked if the ladies would like to borrow his jacket to put over their t-shirts so they could go in and vote. The ladies quickly agreed. As long as I live I will never forget the image of these 80-plus-year-old Jewish ladies walking into the polling location wearing a huge Dale Earnhardt racing jacket that came over their hands and down to their knees!

Mike patiently waited for each woman to cast their vote, accepted their many thanks and then got back in line (I saved him a place while he was helping out the ladies). When Mike got back in line I asked him if he was an Obama supporter. He said that he was not, but that he couldn't stand to see those ladies so upset. I thanked him for being a gentleman in a time of bitter partisanship and wished him well.

After I voted I walked out to the street to find my mother's friends surrouding our new friend Mike — they were laughing and having a great time. I joined them and soon learned that Mike had changed his mind in the polling booth and ended up voting for Obama. When I asked him why he changed his mind at the last minute, he explained that while he was waiting for his jacket he got into a conversation with one of the ladies who had explained how the Jewish community, and she, had worked side by side with the black community during the civil rights movements of the '60s, and that this vote was the culmination of those personal and community efforts so many years ago. That this election for her was more than just a vote ... but a chance at history.

Mike looked at me and said, "Obama's going to win, and I didn't want to tell my grandchildren some day that I had an opportunity to vote for the first black president, but I missed my chance at history and voted for the other guy."

The GOP Blame Game Has Already Begun

While Rudy Giuliani begins fundraising for 2012, the McCain campaign has prematurely begun the circular firing squad...


Blame game: GOP forms circular firing squad
By: Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen and John F. Harris
October 23, 2008 07:45 PM EST

With despair rising even among many of John McCain’s own advisors, influential Republicans inside and outside his campaign are engaged in an intense round of blame-casting and rear-covering—-much of it virtually conceding that an Election Day rout is likely.

A McCain interview published Thursday in the Washington Times sparked the latest and most nasty round of Washington finger-pointing, with senior GOP hands close to President Bush and top congressional aides denouncing the candidate for what they said was an unfocused message and poorly executed campaign.

McCain told the Times that the administration “let things get completely out of hand” through eight years of bad decisions about Iraq, global warming, and big spending.

The candidate’s strategists in recent days have become increasingly vocal in interviews and conference calls about what they call unfair news media coverage and Barack Obama’s wide financial advantage — both complaints laying down a post-election storyline for why their own efforts proved ineffectual.

These public comments offer a whiff of an increasingly acrid behind-the-scenes GOP meltdown—a blame game played out through not-for-attribution comments to reporters that operatives know will find their way into circulation.

Top Republican officials have let it be known they are distressed about McCain’s organization. Coordination between the McCain campaign and Republican National Committee, always uneven, is now nearly dysfunctional, with little high-level contact and intelligence-sharing between the two.

“There is no communication,” lamented one top Republican. “It drives you crazy.”

At his Northern Virginia headquarters, some McCain aides are already speaking of the campaign in the past tense. Morale, even among some of the heartiest and most loyal staffers, has plummeted. And many past and current McCain advisors are warring with each other over who led the candidate astray.

One well-connected Republican in the private sector was shocked to get calls and resumes in the past few days from what he said were senior McCain aides – a breach of custom for even the worst-off campaigns.

“It’s not an extraordinarily happy place to be right now,” said one senior McCain aide. “I’m not gonna lie. It’s just unfortunate.”

“If you really want to see what ‘going negative’ is in politics, just watch the back-stabbing and blame game that we’re starting to see,” said Mark McKinnon, the ad man who left the campaign after McCain wrapped up the GOP primary. “And there’s one common theme: Everyone who wasn’t part of the campaign could have done better.”

“The cake is baked,” agreed a former McCain strategist. “We’re entering the finger-pointing and positioning-for-history part of the campaign. It’s every man for himself now.”

A circular firing squad is among the most familiar political rituals of a campaign when things aren’t going well. But it is rare for campaign aides to be so openly participating in it well before Election Day.

One current senior campaign official gave voice to this “Law of the Jungle” ethic, defending the campaign against second-guessers who say it was a mistake to throw away his experience message in an attempt to match Obama’s “change” mantra.

“Everybody agreed with the strategy,” said this official. “We were unlikely to be successful without being aggressive and taking risks.”

Running as a steady hand and basing a campaign on Obama’s sparse resume was a political loser, it was decided.

“The pollsters and the entire senior leadership of campaign believe that experience versus change was not a winning message and formulation, the same way it was no winning formula with Hillary Clinton.”

Beyond the obvious reputation-burnishing—much of it by professional operatives whose financial livelihoods depend on ensuring that they are not blamed for a bad campaign—there is a more substantive dimension. Barring a big McCain comeback, and a turnabout in numerous congressional races where the party is in trouble, the GOP is on the brink of a soul-searching debate about what to do to reclaim power. Much of that debate will hinge on appraisals of what McCain could have done differently.

That is why his criticisms of Bush hit such an exposed nerve Thursday. Was McCain hobbled by party label at a time when the incumbent president is so unpopular? Or did his uneven response to the financial rescue—and endorsement of such non-conservative ideas as a massive government purchase of homeowner mortgages—seal his fate?

Dan Schnur, a McCain communications advisor during his 2000 run and now a political analyst at the University of Southern California, said McCain should step in to halt the defeatism and self-serving leaks—an epidemic of incontinence—on his own team.

“It’s a natural and human reaction when you’re struggling to make up ground, but that doesn’t make it right,” Schnur said. “As long as the campaign is still potentially winnable, these are an unnecessary distraction. This looks like it’s reached a point where the candidate has to step in himself and crack some heads to remind everyone why they came to work for him in the first place.”

Offered a chance to respond to the suggestion that the McCain campaign is awash in defeatism, a McCain official delivered a decidedly measured appraisal: “We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Our voter intensity is good and we can match their buy dollar for dollar starting today till the election. It’s a long shot but it’s worth fighting for.”

Earlier this week, campaign manager Rick Davis complained to reporters in a conference call that reporters refuse to call out Obama for alleged shady fund-raising tactics, but in the process revealed no small amount of envy about the Democratic financial advantage. "Now, I'd love to have that $4 million right now to put into Pennsylvania,” he said. “It'd be a good thing for our campaign. I think it's a game-changer if I can slap all of that right on Philadelphia media market. It's an expensive place. And, yet, Barack Obama gets away with raising illegitimate money and spending it.”

A New York Times Sunday magazine piece chronicling McCain’s campaign featured numerous not-for-attribution McCain staffers participating in what amounted to a campaign autopsy. One aide told writer Robert Draper, “For better or worse our campaign has been fought from tactic to tactic,” and one criticized McCain’s debate performance.

Long-time McCain alter ego Mark Salter gave an interview to Atlantic writer Jeffrey Goldberg criticizing everything from the news media to the vagaries of fate: “Iraq was supposed to be the issue of the campaign. We assumed it was our biggest challenge. Funny how things work.”

Many conservative commentators likewise have been writing of McCain’s campaign in a valedictory tone. Among this group there is an emerging debate—one with the potential to last for a long time about the role of vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.

One school—including syndicated columnist Kathleen Parker and Peggy Noonan of the Wall Street Journal—called her a drag on the ticket and implicitly rebuked McCain’s judgment in picking her. Another school believes she is the future of the party, a view backed by Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard: “Whether they know it or not, Republicans have a huge stake in Palin. If, after the election, they let her slip into political obscurity, they’ll be making a huge mistake.”

In The Week, former Bush speechwriter David Frum wrote of McCain’s travails in a way that seemed to take defeat for granted and warned the GOP faces a long road back. “That’s not a failure of campaign tactics. It’s not even a failure of strategy. It’s a failure of the Republican Party and conservative movement to adapt to the times.”

While Frum was focused on the long view of history, many Republicans in Washington are much more in the moment—and much harsher in their denunciation of McCain and his team.

A senior Republican strategist, speaking with authority about the view of the party’s establishment, issued a wide-ranging critique of the McCain high command: “Lashing out at past Republican Congresses, … echoing your opponent's attacks on you instead of attacking your opponent, and spending 150,000 hard dollars on designer clothes when congressional Republicans are struggling for money, and when your senior campaign staff are blaming each other for the loss in The New York Times [Magazine] 10 days before the election, you’re not doing much to energize your supporters.

“The fact is, when you’re the party standard-bearer, you have an obligation to fight to the finish,” this strategist continued. “I think they can still win. But if they don’t think that, they need to look at how Bob Dole finished out his campaign in 1996 and not try to take down as many Republicans with them as they can. Instead of campaigning in Electoral College states, Dole was campaigning in places he knew he didn’t have a chance to beat Clinton, but where he could energize key House and Senate races.”

A House Republican leadership aide in an e-mail was no more complimentary: “The staff has been remarkably undisciplined, too eager to point fingers, unable to craft any coherent long term strategy. The handling of Palin (not her performances, but her rollout and availability) has been nothing short of political malpractice. I understand the candidate might have other opinions and might be dictating some aspects of the campaign to staff – but the lack of discipline and ability to draft and stick to a coherent message is unreal. You have half of the campaign saying Ayers is a major issue, and then the candidate out there saying he doesn’t care about a washed up terrorist. You have McCain one day echoing Milton Friedman and the next day echoing FDR.”

© 2008 Capitol News Company, LLC

Endorsement Update #2

Obama continues his overwhelming sweep of newspaper endorsements into this week on two significant fronts. Firstly, on sheer numbers, Obama is beating McCain, 115 to 40. By contrast, in 2004, Kerry barely edged Bush in newspaper endorsement by around a dozen papers or less. More significantly, Obama has already received 26 endorsements from papers that endorsed Bush in 2004, including several papers that have never before endorsed a Democrat, or have done so only one or two times in the last century.

Also significant is the fact the Monday's Zogby poll put Obama at the 50% mark for the first time in national polling numbers, with Obama edging McCain 50-44%. While Obama has been over 50% for some time in Gallup and other polls, this is the first time he has taken this significant "winning" edge in a poll that has traditionally leaned towards the Republicans, and which many conservatives still point to as proof that the race is still closer than it seems. It is also important to note, in this same poll, that while McCain was gaining ground last week, he has once again capped off at or below 45%. He simply has not been able to maintain a sustained place in the polls above 45%. Without a significant change in the underlying dynamics of the race, McCain's White House hopes are looking all the more distant.

One Day More...

15 more days people!!! Get inspired!!

Sunday, Bloody Good Sunday

I awoke this morning to two pieces of extraordinary news. On the campaign front, Barack Obama has filed his fundraising report for the month of September, and the result is historic beyond measure. In that month, the Obama campaign raised $150 million dollars from over 600,000 new donors. Even more stunning, the campaign has now raised contributions from 3.1 million individual Americans, and the average contribution to the Obama campaign is still less than $100 - about $86 a person. This extraordinary people-powered campaign has the ability to aggressively compete in states like West Virginia and North Carolina, once-GOP strongholds that are not trending blue. It's an encouraging sign as we enter the home stretch of this race.

The other exciting piece of news is that Colin Powell, the widely respected General and former Secretary of State, gave a full-throated endorsement of Barack Obama on Meet The Press. His endorsement has all the more credibility, because General Powell is a Republican who has known Mr. McCain for 25 years. Watch the video here of Powell directly answering the endorsement question:

Obama at Bicentennial Park in Miami on Tuesday

HEY MY MIAMI PEOPLE!

Barack Obama will be at Bicentennial Park this Tuesday. Ya'll should get out there! Should be an amazing event!

Here are the details...

This Tuesday, October 21st, please join Barack and Michelle Obama in Miami, where they will talk about Barack's vision for creating the kind of change we need.

Early Vote for Change Rally
with Barack and Michelle Obama

Bicentennial Park
1075 Biscayne Blvd.
Miami, FL 33132

Tuesday, October 21st
Doors Open: 3:45 p.m.
Program Begins: 5:45 p.m.



http://fl.barackobama.com/MiamiChange

This event is free and open to the public. Tickets are not required; however, an RSVP is strongly encouraged.

100,000 Rally In St. Louis For Obama!

WOW!!! This afternoon, Barack Obama spoke at a rally under the Gateway Arch in St. Louis in front of 100,000 people.

The fight has turned to taxes. McCain is accusing Obama of "class warfare" and "socialism," when the fact is that Obama wants to return the tax system to the way it was under President Clinton, who wasn't exactly a Communist. While McCain attacked Obama's tax plan, Obama hit back before the giant crowd, saying that John McCain

"wants to cut taxes for the same people who have already been making out like bandits, in some cases literally."

"John McCain is so out of touch with the struggles you are facing that he must be the first politician in history to call a tax cut for working people 'welfare,'" Obama said.

As the McCain campaign stays in angry mode while playing defense in states like North Carolina, Obama is laying out his broad, positive vision in former red states and drawing historic crowds. As AP reports,

The candidates' itineraries underscored McCain's dilemma.

Obama spent the day in Missouri, a bellwether state that voted for President Bush in 2004. Campaign aides, citing local police, estimated 100,000 people turned out to hear him at the Gateway Arch on a sunny day.

McCain leveled his most critical rhetoric of the day in a paid weekly radio address, and he campaigned later in North Carolina and Virginia, a pair of traditionally Republican states he is struggling to hold. Aides estimated his North Carolina crowd at 4,000 to 5,000, a number he matched later in the day during an outdoor appearance in Woodbridge, Va.

The senator took the stage there to the theme song of "Rocky," a movie about an underdog and comeback fighter.

Read the AP Report for more details on the rally. Or, check out the excellent New York Times article.

Endorsement Update

Obama has been endorsed by the Washington Post, The L.A. Times, and the Chicago Tribune. Word on the street is the NY Times will endorse him on Sunday. I did predict that these endorsements would start coming fast and furious... what will be even more interesting, however, is to see how some more traditionally conservative papers endorse, and who is endorsed in the critical swing states. For example, the Chicago Tribune has NEVER endorsed a Democrat for President. Amazing!

Fox news has a short article on the endorsement tally, and so far, Obama has nearly three times as many newspaper endorsements than John McCain. I'll be keeping a close eye on this thing in the weeks to come.

North Dakota **Still** In Play!

Pollster.com's aggregate poll now actually has Obama UP in North Dakota!

North Dakota has as many electoral votes as Washington DC: 3. It's not going to be a game-changer, in all likelihood. But it would be huge politically. As Kos points out,

"This is a state Bush won by 28 points in 2004. Obama would expand the Democratic map, earning a national mandate by winning in every region of the country. And it would show Republicans that they aren't safe anywhere, not even in their supposed "strongholds"."

With only 18 days to go, instead of tightening (as the media narrative would have you believe), this race seems to be opening up for Obama in unexpected places. Suddenly, he is pouring resources into West Virginia and making a serious play for it's electoral votes. McCain and the RNC are pulling resources out of nearly every state Kerry won in 2004 and are hunkering down playing defense in must-win states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida. If Obama takes any of those three states, we're going to have an early night on Election Day.

Live Blogging the Last Presidential Debate

8:04 PM: Good evening everyone! In less than hour, I will be reporting live to you from Philadelphia on this last debate between future-President Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. Some exciting news... I received my absentee ballot today, and like millions of other Americans across the country, have already voted for President! (Guess who I picked?) Tonight, I will be delivering more of that live color commentary you've come to know and love, breaking down the questions and letting you know what's really going on. Yesterday, John McCain vowed to "kick his you-know-what" and has also suggested he will be bringing up the "radical associations" he and his surrogates have not stopped talking about on the campaign trail. Will McCain finally "say it to my face," as Obama nearly taunted him to do? We will be watching out for that exchange, both to see if and how McCain brings it up, and what Obama has prepared to say to respond to it. All in all, it should make for good political theater. More importantly, we will be watching to see whose economic plans connect better with voters (both campaigns rolled out additional new policies this week). This is one of McCain's last chances to make up precious lost ground to Obama, so the stakes are perhaps higher than ever before. It should be a good show, so stay tuned!

9:00 The setting for this debate is both of them sitting close to each other at a table. This should create a very intimate and different feel from the first two debates. and here they come!

9:02: Doesn't Bob Schieffer kind of look like a zombie? John McCain looks uncomfortable already.

9:03: McCain's $52 billion plan versus Obama's $60 billion plan; why is one better than another?
McCain always has thoughts and prayers for someone in the hospital; remember his kindly remarks for Ted Kennedy in the first debate?
McCain is once again attempting to tie this entire economic collapse to Fannie and Freddie. This is very shortsighted, and not true, but he's doing it because of his claim that he was prescient on that single issue, despite being a lifelong deregulator.
Obama's "fundamentals of the economy was weak" was a underhanded jab at John McCain, since everybody knows that was what he said on the first day of the meltdown a month ago today. On the CNN dial meter, we are once again seeing Obama scoring much higher on his specific proposals than McCain. Obama scored higher overall throughout the entire last debate; will we see that trend again in this debate?
McCain is talking about Obama on taxes and hitting him hard, but it looks like people aren't buying it. Obama will contrast his tax plans with McCain's; as I've argued before, I think Obama is turning this normally negative area for Democrats into a positive. McCain is trying to raise the spectre of class warfare and keeps repeating this "spread the wealth around" meme. I wonder if it will get any traction? I do think McCain may have scored some points in this exchange.

9:14 Aren't you both ignoring reality?
Haven't we heard this question already? McCain with the spending freeze, Obama with the scalpel, blah blah blah. Will we finally hear anything different?
Obama's said this before; I will go through the budget line by line and cut programs. Interesting tidbit: Reagan said the same thing when he was running for President. He also thinks that investing in education, energy, etc. will give us the resources to do what we need. He is scoring high.
McCain: talking about FDR's home ownership corporation. Energy independence. and here it comes... the spending freeze! "a hatchet, and then I would get out a scalpel!" Good line, Obama said that scalpel line twice, McCain makes up some ground there; his scores go way up on the voter meter. McCain brings up the overhead projector AGAIN! oy vey.
Obama: not gonna abandon his scalpel line. Finally, Obama brings up the Bush budget albatross. There are some wild differences here between men and women on how they feel about what McCain is saying. Right now, Men are up in the sixties while women are down in the forties. How strange.
McCain has got to fight hard to distinguish himself from President Bush; can that stick?
What's interesting here is that they are finally having to listen to each other (well, McCain has to listen to Obama) and the intimacy of this setting is making this debate have a much less "speechy" character. They are actually following up much more carefully on each other's statements.

9:25: Hell of a question, Bob! Will you say these nasty things to each other face to face, what you've said on the campaign trail?
McCain is dragging out this tired old discussion about town hall meetings. How can he possible blame Obama for the lies and smears his campaign has been promoting? It seems he's avoiding the worst of his own allegations, while bringing up this Wallace thing (that Obama, in fact, did repudiate). Interesting that he did not address the Ayers thing we have been expecting. Also, it seemed like McCain was genuinely hurt by what Congressman Lewis said.
Obama: makes a smart move by saying, this guy is the negative one, I'm the one who's gonna focus on the issues.
This is so interesting to see them looking at each other in the eye and talking about their own campaigns; its actually sort of surreal.

9:30 McCain is definitely having his finest night so far. I've got a feeling the news media is going to be scoring him a lot higher than any evening before.

9:33 Obama elevating the discussion; McCain starting to get testy and interrupt Barack Obama.
Obama brings up "palling around with terrorists" line from Palin; McCain totally ignores it, and goes into a defense of his supporters.
I wish Obama would just come back and say, "I'm not talking about your supporters, I'm talking about your running mate. How can you defend her dishonorable and dishonest comments?" Obama is trying to avoid the back and forth though, and instead once again focus on solving the issues. I think Obama is trying to take the high road and it is scoring him some points here and allowing him to bring the debate back to his side.

9:36 HERE IT IS! Ayers, ACORN, all the crap we knew was coming... Mr. Ayers indeed HAS become the centerpiece of McCain's campaign- finally getting to the heart of it. Obama is doing a fine job of working out the facts on this stuff, and now he's making a smart turn by talking about his positive associations. "it says more about your campaign, Mr. McCain, than it says about me." McCain is looking like so hypocritical; five minutes ago he said that Ayers was not important, and now he's working again to try and make those negative attacks hit. His numbers went soaring down during that little exchange.

9:40 The running mate question - love it! This is a gimmee for the Obama campaign; how will McCain possibly argue that Sarah Palin is more fit to be president than Joe Biden?
I think this little pump up of Biden is a great little bit of wisdom on why the Biden pick was such a smart one: he'd make an outstanding president.
McCain says the words Sarah Palin, and the positives plummet. He's trying to sell as her as this "breath of fresh air" reformer. Will Obama bring up the recent ethics report? The many lies of Sarah Palin? Will he put her in her place?
Obama: refusing to go negative. Smart? Maybe.

9:49 I think these discussions about energy are so important and Obama is scoring great points on this. Watching McCain's reactions to Obama is very telling. He wears his heart on his sleeve; Obama looks cool as a cucumber.

9:53 Obama makes the excellent point that he is not against free trade; he is for free trade when the agreements are structured fairly and protect human and worker rights. A centrist and intelligent position, to which McCain must make a very loud SNIFF. McCain as Bush: "I don't do nuance."
Obama's discussion about fuel efficient cars, clean energy is scoring the highest points of the night. After a weaker start, Obama seems to have hit his stride here. McCain says Obama wants to sit down with Hugo Chavez and look at Obama - he LAUGHS it off, because it is so ridiculous, and you know what? The dials from the indies seem to agree. People just don't buy these lies from the McCain campaign.

9:56 Healthcare
Obama once again lays out his two pronged approach to Healthcare on lowering costs and getting more people insured. He once again gets into the details about how he's going to change things from the Bush/McCain Healthcare policies. McCain comes out with the standard boilerplate language about how terrible the healthcare crisis is. McCain keeps talking about these little fixes, but people don't buy it. McCain's talking to Joe the plumber again. Will Obama make you pay a fine? Yeah, if you're a huge multinational, not a small business! McCain looks STUNNED that Obama has an exemption for small businesses. It seems like on a lot of Obama's positions, McCain just doesn't know what he's talking about. He didn't seem to know about Obama's vote for the Chile free trade agreement, or this small business exemption.
Obama criticizes McCain for taxing health care benefits for the first time (again) and McCain still has not responded to this attack. Will he tonight?
10:03 What is McCain talking about? Mandating health care? Big government at its best? McCain, where you listening to anything that Obama just said? Bizarre response here... and its not scoring high. People do not trust McCain on the healthcare issue, with good reason; for the last 8 years under Bush and the Republicans, they've been getting screwed.
"Senator Government" says McCain. But maybe Americans are finally getting ready to trust Government again.

10:06 Abortion!
It is very true that this election will be crucial for the composition of the Supreme Court. If you want more judges like Alito and Scalia, vote McCain for the erosion of civil liberties, the disregard for stare decisis, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and the like. If you want more justices like Ginzburg and Breyer, elect Obama.

10:13 "if it sounds incredible, that's because it's not true." To which McCain once again gives us that stunned, befuddled, disrespectful look. As Obama explains his vote in Illinois on abortion, he continues to look smart, principled, and moderate. Its fascinating that McCain talks so much about bipartisanship, yet when Obama says there must be a way to find "common ground" on this issue, he gives out another one of his loud sniffs. Oh, and health of the mother? That's some crazy liberal batshit.

10:15 McCain is getting very testy again. As we approach the final 15 minutes here, it seems like he hasn't broken any new ground tonight. He is going to score better in this debate than the last two, but I predict Obama will still have an edge that at least mirrors his current edge in the national polls. If that is the case, I'd say McCain is looking more and more like toast.

10:16 Education
Obama is scoring in the 90s on this whole discussion on education. People really love how he is trying service to loans and making education not only a moral issue, but about the future of our economy and our future.
McCain: choice and competition amongst schools is what works. This is part of the answer, John, but it is not the solution. It is also about resources.
Why doesn't McCain have money for kids to go to college? Obama: "America's Youth aren't an interest group... they're our future!"

10:30
McCain's strongest closing so far. Notice, his sell to independent's is "you can trust me," the implication being that Obama is risky and untrustworthy.
Obama gives a typical closing speech focused on his ever-present theme: Change.

Gosh, Obama is a lot taller than John McCain. Look at John going out of his way to look gracious, going over to shake Michelle's hand, very strange behavior. I'll post the snap polls as soon as they come in...

CNN pundits are pretty good tonight. Reagan's guy makes a good point that it was McCain started out strong, and Obama was a little flat at time. Paul Begala agrees with me that the first 30 minutes were for McCain, but that Obama got his footing and was able to carry the last hour. David Gergen is absolutely right that once again, McCain lost his cool, and Obama kept looking presidential.

CNN's voter panel goes for Obama almost 2 to 1.

Over on Faux News, Charles Krauthammer is actually making an extremely good point... that on a day when the economy is down over 700 points, it wouldn't have mattered if Ronald Reagan himself had been sitting in that chair next to Obama... the fact is that McCain represents the opposing party, and this economic crisis has occurred on their watch. Obama just needed to show a steady, presidential air, and he did. Since he didn't make any major gaffes, no matter how well McCain tried, Obama came out the winner.

CNN POLL IS IN: PEOPLE WHO WATCHED THE DEBATE
40 Dem, 30% Republican, rest independent, tracking the numbers in the country

Who did better in this debate?
Obama: 58%
McCain 31%

Favorable/Unfavorable: before and after the debate
Obama
Favorable, Before: 63% After 66%
Unfavorable, 35% to 33%
McCain
Favorable, 51% to 49%
Unfavorable, 45% to 49%

CBS poll of undecided voters:

Who won the debate?
McCain (R) 22
Obama (D) 53

Shares your values
Obama, Before the debate: 54
Obama, After the debate: 63

McCain, Before the debate: 53
McCain, After the debate: 56

The Obama Tax Calculator: Discover How Much YOUR Family Will Save!

This is so cool.

When discussing John Kerry's loss in the 2004 election, many people point to the effective right-wing smear job that made Kerry seem unpatriotic and unreliable. This is typically referred to as the "Swift Boating" of John Kerry.

A much less discussed reason for Kerry's loss, I think, is the notion that Republicans were able to paint him as a typical "tax and spend liberal" who would invariably raise taxes on most Americans. Kerry did not do an effective job laying out his ideas on taxes. Yes, he discussed repealing the Bush tax cuts, but he did not assure most Americans that his tax plans would help them - and I think this was a major liability.

As I have said before, Barack Obama has finally found an effective way to talk about taxes in a way that is progressive and reassuring to average Americans.

His new "tax calculator" launched today on his website is another ingenious extension of this argument. It is a simple application that allows you to enter a few essential facts about your income, and calculates what your taxes will look like under an Obama Administration, and compares it to the numbers you'd receive under a McCain administration. I put in some numbers for my own family, and found we would be getting THREE TIMES the amount of tax relief under McCain.

Try it out for yourself!

Georgia Looking Blue in Early Voting

An exciting development in Georgia, that may be a glimpse into trends to come...
The Peach State began early voting several weeks ago, which will continue for the next three weeks until the election. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution,

"Early vote totals have now reached 499,582 -- about 75,000 more than were cast early in all of 2004. (The state is also newly encouraging early voting this year, so that's a major factor.)

And the ratio of African-American voters remains extremely high: 37% of the early votes were cast by black voters, who make up just 29% of the state's electorate."

Those black votes, and perhaps a large amount of the rest of the votes as well, are votes in the bank for Barack Obama. The heightened turnout of African-Americans is a good sign for the Obama campaign, especially since it is often in poorer, predominantly minority voting precincts that there are long lines on Election Day that dissuade people from actually casting a vote (think Ohio in 2004).

Kos says that "if African Americans end up above 30 percent of overall turnout, we'll have a Blue Georgia at the presidential level and Senator-elect Jim Martin."

Wouldn't that be something amazing?

The Boston Globe Endorses Obama

So far, Obama has racked up endorsements from Esquire, the Reporter in NJ (a paper that hasn't endorsed a democrat since FDR), Rolling Stone, and some other magazines, but for the most part, the major papers have not yet made their formal endorsements. With 21 says to go in this race, expect this first major endorsement of Obama to be the beginning of a trickle that will soon become a flood.

Obama for president
October 13, 2008
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COME JANUARY, a new president will take charge of a nation diminished, an America that is far shakier economically, less secure militarily, and less respected internationally than it was eight years before. The nation needs a chief executive who has the temperament and the nerves to shepherd Americans through what promises to be a grueling period — and who has the vision to restore this country to its place of leadership in the world.

Such a leader is at hand. With great enthusiasm, the Globe endorses Senator Barack Obama for president. The charismatic Democrat from Illinois has the ability to channel Americans’ hopes and rally the public together, at a time when the winds are picking up and the clouds keep on darkening.

Unlike many of his rivals this year of either party, Obama isn’t refighting the political or cultural battles of the 1960s. Instead, he is asking Americans to take responsibility for the nation’s problems now; no one else will take care of them, and the consequences of years of disunity and profligacy should not be visited upon future generations.

Obama shows great faith in the possibility of persuasion overseas and in the ingenuity of the American economy. While intransigent rogue states can’t be finger-wagged into giving up on nuclear weapons, perhaps they can be talked back from the brink. As fossil fuels become scarcer, and the ecological damage more evident, Americans can put up windmills and solar panels and drive more efficient cars.

Encouragingly, Obama has assembled an impressive economic team that understands both the power of the market and the need to discourage recklessness and promote social equity. He would broaden access to health insurance, using a mechanism akin to this state’s Commonwealth Connector. And he offers a tax plan that, in offering modest cuts to most taxpayers and taking back some past cuts for the highest earners, acknowledges the widening gap between the wealthiest Americans and everyone else.

The question, of course, is whether Obama can make good on his promises under the circumstances. For George W. Bush will leave a woeful legacy. The Iraq war, which was sold to Congress and the public on false pretenses, continues to consume billions upon billions of dollars, even as many of the plotters of Sept. 11 are still at large. In his efforts to cultivate democracy abroad, Bush has hacked away at its roots here: due process, the separation of powers, the conviction that there are some things that government must not do. Waterboarding and secret prisons abroad, warrantless wiretapping at home — these acts belie America’s image of forthrightness, the nation’s greatest asset in world affairs.

Meanwhile, as the planet gets warmer, its top energy consumer has no plan to wean itself from fossil fuels. Healthcare costs are strangling businesses. Real wages have declined for the average worker, even as the cost of food and fuel has skyrocketed. Vague unease about the economy has turned into outright fear as the financial system sank into quicksand and 500-point-plus plunges on the stock market have become a near-daily occurrence. Obama’s opponent, Senator John McCain, would try to solve all these problems by going back to the same Republican set of tools: tough talk abroad, tax cuts for the richest at home. In contrast, Obama’s presidency would benefit from the Illinois senator’s formidable political gifts. A graduate of Harvard Law School and a former community organizer on Chicago’s South Side, Obama debuted on the national political scene with a dazzling speech at the Democratic National Convention four years ago. Since then, every word of his books and his speeches has been closely parsed. Evident from all that scrutiny is a nimble mind, an ever more impressive grasp of policy detail, and an ability to listen to contradictory viewpoints. Obama is clearly a liberal. But when he led the Harvard Law Review, he won praise from conservative thinkers because he genuinely wanted to hear what they had to say.

Obama is hardly immune to political calculation. Though he has positioned himself as a supporter of campaign finance reform, he backed out of the public financing system after his ability to raise jaw-dropping sums over the Internet became apparent. In the general election campaign, he has been slow to admit how much the financial crisis would limit his policy options come January.

Even so, the way Obama has run his campaign has been a marvel of sound management: He laid down principles, put the right people in positions of authority, and spent money strategically. And he has shown a remarkable steadiness. Whether he was far behind Hillary Clinton before the Iowa caucuses or on the verge of locking up the Democratic nomination, whether he was leading or trailing McCain in the general election contest, Obama made the same forward-looking appeal to voters’ best instincts.

As the first black major-party presidential nominee, Obama has strived to make voters comfortable with a ‘‘skinny kid with a funny name.’’ And yet the historical significance of his bid is impossible to ignore. Voters can make no more powerful statement about America’s commitment to inclusion and opportunity than to put forward this man — Barack Hussein Obama, son of a father from Kenya and a mother from Kansas — as the nation’s representative to the world.

An early Obama campaign slogan declared, ‘‘We are the ones we’ve been waiting for.’’ His critics deemed such rhetoric too ethereal. Now it seems prescient, as the nation confronts a financial crisis of historic proportions, as well as all the other policy failures and debt-fueled excesses of the last eight years. The United States has to dig itself out. Barack Obama is the one to lead the way.

Barnyard Hope

Had to post this picture I came across today because it is so beautiful...



And who says Obama isn't resonating in the Heartland?

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